Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.45.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.20.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.45.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has fluctuated during today's trading, moving within the same range as it has throughout the current week. The pair is trading around the levels of 34.50 Turkish Lira, below the peak recorded at the end of last week at 34.68 Turkish Lira.
Markets are awaiting today's decision by the Turkish Central Bank on interest rates, which is expected to keep rates unchanged at 50% for the eighth consecutive meeting. This is due to the slowdown in the decline of inflation rates, especially monthly inflation, which is the preferred indicator for the Turkish Central Bank to measure the change in inflation.
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Meanwhile, investors have followed a report issued by Morgan Stanley analysts that included forecasts for emerging markets by 2025, highlighting the Turkish economy. The report indicated Turkey's success in tightening monetary policy by reducing economic imbalances and strengthening foreign reserves, leading to a decline in dollarization and an increase in the ratio of Turkish Lira deposits to 56%. Also, it expected moderate economic growth and a continued decline in inflation to 26% by the end of 2025, paving the way for a gradual reduction in interest rates.
Meanwhile, the report revealed that Turkey witnessed an increase in foreign capital inflows to 17 billion dollars and a decline in the current account deficit to 0.8% of GDP. Despite the slowdown in economic activity and the contraction of industrial production, retail sales and consumer confidence showed resilience. Furthermore, the report expected the lira to continue to rise in 2025 as inflation gradually declines. Also, it indicated that the central bank would maintain a tight monetary policy in parallel with a gradual reduction in interest rates to achieve sustainable economic stability.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair fluctuated, recording a slight rise during European trading this morning. The pair generally maintained its movement within a narrow range. The overall upward trend continues to control the pair's movements, which is trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. The price is also trading within an upward price channel for several months, supporting the continued rise of the pair. Currently, the upward trendline and the 50-day moving average represent the best support levels from which the pair can be repurchased with each decline. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the pair with each decline in the dollar, which represents an opportunity to repurchase with the aim of reaching the previous peak at 34.68 lira and 34.75 lira.
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