Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.45.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.20.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.45.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair has not seen significant changes during last week's trading, nor with the opening of the market. The pair continued to move around the 34.50 lira levels without any significant improvement or decline after the interest rate decision issued by the Turkish Central Bank last Thursday, which kept the interest rate unchanged for the eighth consecutive time at 50%. Moreover, the Central Bank's decision did not contradict the expectations that prevailed in the markets.
The decision came with the aim of continuing to curb inflation, which showed a higher rise than market expectations over the months of September and October. Despite the continued monetary tightening, the bank's statement issued after the interest rate decision did not overlook pointing to the approaching cycle of easing monetary policy in the near future. Bank analysts "Goldman Sachs" and "Morgan Stanley" expect this phase to begin next month, or by the beginning of next year, 2025. Obviously, these expectations may be closer to realization if inflation rates for the month of November record a significant decline compared to previous months.
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Furthermore, the data issued over the past months showed a continued decline in inflation in the country, but it was a disappointing slowdown. Inflation slowed on an annual basis in October to 48.6%, although the decline came in higher than expectations, which were at the highest level of 48.5%. Currently, the Turkish Central Bank's estimates indicate that the inflation rate will stabilize at the end of 2024 at levels of 44%. This is after the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Fatih Karahan, adjusted the inflation rate forecasts, which previously indicated levels of 36%.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical side, the USD/TRY pair maintained its stability with the beginning of trading on Monday morning. With the price moving around an average of 34.50, less than the peak it recorded about ten days ago at 34.68 lira. Despite the current fluctuation, the pair continues to move within the overall upward trend, albeit at a slower pace. With the price moving above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, respectively. Also, the pair is supported by moving above the upward trendline as well as the price moving within an upward price channel.
Technically, the upward trendline and the 50-day moving average represent the best support levels from which the pair can be repurchased with each decline. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the pair with each decline in the dollar, which represents an opportunity to repurchase with the aim of reaching the previous peak at 34.68 lira and 34.75 lira.
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