Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.45.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.20.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.45.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The dollar-Turkish lira pair stabilized during early trading hours on Thursday at the same levels it has been trading at on average throughout this month, while the pair recorded slight increases. Reflecting the easing of monetary and fiscal authorities' control over the lira's movements, which have witnessed a fluctuating trajectory over the past months.
Meanwhile, investors followed the Central Bank of Turkey's November report, which revealed a decrease in annual inflation expectations for the next 12 months among market investors, households. The report showed a decline in inflation expectations to 27.2% for market participants, a decrease of 0.2 points, to 47.8% for the real sector, a decrease of 1.7 points, and to 64.1% for households, a decrease of 3.1 points. Meanwhile, the percentage of households expecting inflation to decrease by two points also decreased to 26.3%.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek confirmed that the decline in inflation had a positive impact on expectations across all sectors. He explained that expectations have improved since May by 12 points for households, 8.2 points for the real sector, and 6 points for market participants. Simsek expected the inflation rate at the end of the year to be between 44% and 45%, stressing the importance of patience and continuing the anti-inflation program to achieve single-digit figures within the next two to two and a half years. He pointed to the decline in exchange rate volatility, stressing that structural reforms will enhance the sustainability of economic gains.
In other statements, Deputy President Cevdet Yilmaz explained that the medium-term program aims to reduce high inflation, stressing that success in combating inflation will enhance predictability and growth. He emphasized the importance of balanced policies to achieve economic stability and inclusive growth, with a focus on the long-term benefits of declining inflation.
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USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the dollar against the lira (USD/TRY) recorded slight increases during Asian trading this morning, while the price stabilized below the peak it recorded during yesterday's Wednesday trading at 34.70 lira. The pair continues its slow rise, which is expected to continue considering the dominance of the overall upward trend on the pair, which moves above the 50- and 200-day moving averages.Also, the pair is moving based on an ascending trendline. Concurrently, the pair's trading within an ascending price channel supports the pair's continued rise. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the dollar, which presents a buying opportunity with every decline as it targets levels of 34.75 lira and 35.00 respectively.
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