Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.10.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.90.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.30.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.51.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.99.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The US dollar rose slightly against the Turkish lira in early trading on Monday, although the pair did not surpass the peak recorded last month at 34.41 lira. Recently, the lira's price has not affected by the inflation data released this morning as the Turkish Central Bank supports the lira's stability at specific levels.
In details of the data, the Turkish Statistical Institute issued a report on the consumer price index, which recorded an annual increase of 48.58%, compared to 49.38% recorded in September. The figure exceeded expectations that pointed to 48.30%. On a monthly basis, the Turkish consumer price index increased in October, recording 2.88% compared to 2.97% recorded in September, and the figure was also higher than expectations, which indicated a decline in inflation to 2.66%. The data also revealed an increase in the core inflation index - which excludes the most volatile items such as food and energy - on an annual basis in October, recording 47.75% compared to expectations of 47.80%, while core inflation had recorded 49.1% in September.
In a separate statement, data on the producer price index was released, which recorded an annual increase in October of 32.24%, compared to 33.09% recorded in September. Also, the index recorded a monthly increase in prices of 1.29% compared to 1.375 recorded in September.
Following the data, analysts ruled out the possibility of the Turkish Central Bank cutting interest rates this year, as it is expected that the interest rate of 50% will be maintained until the beginning of 2025. The central bank has kept the interest rate unchanged for several months, specifically since last April and for seven consecutive meetings.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has maintained its stability, recording slight changes near the peak recorded at 34.41 lira. In the medium term, the pair's movements are dominated by fluctuation with the price stabilizing around levels ranging between 34.20 and 34.40. On the longer timeframe, the overall uptrend still dominates the pair's trading, with the price trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Also, with the price moving above an upward trendline on the daily timeframe, the pair is also stabilizing within an ascending price channel. Ultimately, the forecast for the Turkish lira price suggests a rise in the pair as every decline in the dollar price represents an opportunity to buy back.
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