- Instead of becoming more calm in Forex last week, financial institutions continued to display their nervousness and allow for more USD centric strength.
- Yes, the USD/ZAR has climbed into higher price levels challenging values not seen since the second week of August.
- The highs attained last week in the USD/ZAR are a reminder the currency pair can move with a dynamic pace that is dangerous for traders who are not using risk management.
As of this writing the USD/ZAR is near the 18.11460 ratio with fast conditions being seen. A high of nearly 18.39330 was seen on Thursday of last week, before some incremental selling started to take place. Behavioral sentiment is fragile and may remain this way over the near-term, retail traders need to understand they are entering a Forex market that is comparable to a casino if trades are pursued without proper risk taking tactics. However, the USD/ZAR is still correlating well to global Forex conditions and that is an optimistic sign for speculators if USD weakness begins to show signs of life.
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U.S Data and Lack of a Reaction
U.S data has not had a major effect on trading sentiment the past week and a half. While economic statistics from the U.S have actually been beneficial for the Federal Reserve to continue its dovish stance, it appears many Forex traders remain worried about the implications of Donald Trump and his new policies. The USD centric strength however will likely start to erode.
The problem for short-term traders looking for downside in the USD/ZAR based on the notion that it is overbought, is the amount of nervousness that remains in Forex. Choppy conditions have caused a lot of reversals and the upwards trend in the USD/ZAR the past month and a half needs to be given respect. Standing in front of the trend can be dangerous. Yes, the USD/ZAR has sold off from highs seen late last week, but traders should not get overly ambitious.
Cashing Out with Profits in the USD/ZAR
There will be no major U.S economic data in the short-term and the USD/ZAR will remain under the dark shadow of behavioral sentiment. U.S bonds and equities are colliding in higher ratios and this will lead to an impact that causes a reaction in Forex at some point. Timing the collision and knowing what the results will be is a guessing game. If U.S bond yields decrease it might help USD centric weakness start to emerge.
The highs in the USD/ZAR and the ability to move fast needs to be treated with care.
If the USD/ZAR can move below the 18.10000 level in the short-term and sustain lows, it may be a signal additional selling will emerge in the currency pair.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.14700
Current Support: 18.10200
High Target: 18.16600
Low Target: 18.06800
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