USD/CHF
The US dollar pulled back a bit during the beginning of the week, only to turn around and show signs of life. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to break above the 0.87 level. If we can break above the 0.87 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 0.88 level. All things being equal, I think we have a situation where short-term pullbacks will continue to attract value hunters, especially as the interest rate differential will continue to favor the greenback going forward, although expect a little bit of noise due to the election.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the week, but we have gained back about half of the losses, and it’s probably worth noting that this is the 5th week in a row that we had seen negativity. Because of this, we are a bit overdone, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we bounce. The 0.65 level underneath will continue to be support, as it has been important multiple times. If we rally from here, then the market is probably going to continue to see the 0.67 level above as a significant resistance barrier. While I would anticipate a little bit of positivity, I think it’s somewhat limited.
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EUR/USD
The Euro rallied a bit during the course of the week, but it does seem like it’s struggling to hang on to some gains. That being said, the market is likely to continue to be very noisy and sideways, as we are hanging around the 50 Week EMA.
If we can break above the top of the candlestick, then the market will have to deal with the 1.10 level. On the downside, the 1.0750 level is a significant support level that should be paid close attention to. If we were to break down below there, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 1.05 level, which has been a major support level multiple times over the last couple of years. In other words, I think this is a market that is still somewhat lost.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has been like a wrecking ball against the Canadian dollar for some time now, and this past week we have been testing the crucial 1.3950 level, which of course is an area that has been significant resistance multiple times for quite some time. All things being equal, if we can break above the 1.40 level, the US dollar will probably eviscerate the Canadian dollar, because in that environment, it would probably be more about the US dollar than the Loonie. That being said, I can make a strong argument for some type of pullback in the short term as we have gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves.
USD/JPY
The US dollar gapped higher to kick off the trading week, but we have been all over the place since then. All things being equal, it does look like we are trying to find some type of footing on Friday. The candlestick for the week is somewhat neutral and considering that we had seen such an explosive candlestick previously, it looks like we should continue to see upward trajectory. The ¥155 level above should continue to be a target and a short-term ceiling. On the downside, the ¥150 level should offer a significant amount of support going forward.
Gold
This past week has been somewhat bullish for gold, but it’s obvious to me that we are starting to run out of steam. The candlestick for the week does show a bit of hesitation, and I think we are probably looking at a situation where sooner or later, somebody is going to have to step in and start taking profit. The $2800 level is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that has attracted a lot of attention. That being said, I’ll be looking for any pullback as a potential buying opportunity, especially closer to the $2600 level.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has rallied fairly significantly during the course of the trading week, breaking well above the 20 MXN level. However, we have given back more than half of the gains for the week, so I think we will continue to struggle to break to the upside. However, keep in mind that there is a major amount of influence in this pair based on risk appetite, and the US dollar of course is considered to be the “premier safety currency”, so obviously this will continue to be a worth watching. Furthermore, we have the US elections, which will have a major influence on immigration in the United States, which has a major influence on this pair. Expect a lot of volatility, as it looks like we are currently working off froth.
Silver
Silver initially rallied during the course of the trading week to break well above the $34 level. The $34 level opens up the possibility of a move to the $35 level, but we have turned around quite drastically to show signs of hesitation. The market fell significantly down to the $32.50 level, which of course is an area where we have seen a lot of action in the past, so a certain amount of “market memory” should come into the picture. However, if we were to break down below there, then I would anticipate a bit of a deeper correction.
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