My previous signal last Monday was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level at $0.6247 was first reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6299, $0.6352, or $0.6388.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6166 or $0.6126.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast last Monday that the AUD/USD currency pair was
likely to fall further if we had gotten two consecutive lower hourly closes below $0.6247 during the London session. This was a good call insofar as it gave about 20 pips of profit which would have led to a breakeven trade for most.
The technical picture has changed little since Monday, with the price making a very even, neutral consolidation pattern over recent days, within a long-term bearish price channel represented by the linear regression analysis I have placed on the price chart below.
Although there has been a recovery in risk sentiment this week, it has not boosted the Aussie much, which seems to have a weakness due to Australian economic woes instead of just acting as a risk barometer as it often has in recent years.
I would be prepared to take a short trade from a bearish reversal at $0.6299 due to the long-term bearish trend, and that level’s confluence with the round number at $0.6300.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm.
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