My previous BTC/USD signal on 2nd December may have produced both a short and a long trade, but neither would have made much profit.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50% per trade.
- Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $100,000, $96,994, or $94,735.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast a few days ago that the price action was already looking more bearish within the current consolidation, so I thought it was quite likely to fall to at least the $95,433.
This was an accurate call.
The technical picture has changed notably, with the firm bullish price movement seen over the past hours which has finally driven the price to a new record high above the pivotal $100,000 level. This is a bullish sign, and we will likely learn a lot from whether the price continues to hold up above $100,000 and what kind of price action we see forming.
I will enter a new long trade here only if we get a daily (New York) close above $100,000. Waiting for this to happen first will probably help keep traders wanting to go long out of trouble.
I will not take any short trade today, but if there is a strong fall over the coming hours to a price well below $100,000 that could be the sign that the bullish trend, or at least this bull run within the longer-term trend, has peaked.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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