- During my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I again see this market hanging around the 1.05 level.
- This is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past so it’s not a huge surprise to see that the market has found it yet again.
- During the trading session on Wednesday, we have gotten the Consumer Price Index numbers coming out the United States, and they were announced as being 0.3% month over month as expected, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where the market really hasn’t learned much, but it at least feels as if it dodged some potential trouble.
That being said, we get the Producers Price Index on Thursday, and this will have a significant influence on the US dollar. On the European side of things, we get the European Central Bank interest rate decision, and I think that most traders are expecting a 0.35% interest rate cut. The question will be what the statement sounds like and whether or not the Europeans are going to remain very dovish going forward. I suspect they will, but you have to be prepared for some type of upward surprise if the statement is a little bit more neutral or hawkish than anticipated.
Top Forex Brokers
The Path Going Forward
I think the path going forward is going to be a situation where the US dollar will strengthen overall. Whether or not the Euro will fall from here remains to be seen, but I know a lot of truly intelligent people who I respect that believe we will see parity again. Short-term rallies will continue to look like shorting opportunities to be at the first signs of exhaustion. This would be especially near the 1.06 level, and then again at the 50 Day EMA. In fact, it’s not until we break above the 50 Day EMA, and I see some shifts coming out of the ECB that I am willing to buy this EUR/USD pair.
That being said, keep in mind we are getting close to the end of the year so you may see a short covering rally. That is a very real and present danger so you must be very diligent about recognizing when the momentum has shifted, even if it ends up just being a short-term move based on low liquidity. I still favor the downside overall though.
Ready to trade our daily EUR/USD Forex analysis? We’ve made this forex brokers list for you to check out.