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EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Gives Up Early Gains on Friday

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • During my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the first thing that comes to the forefront is the fact that we try to break above the crucial 1.06 level, only to turn around and fall quite significantly.
  • When you look at the chart, it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see that we have been consolidating for the most part of the last couple of weeks, perhaps with the exception of the massive selloff during last Friday.
  • We did bounce rather significantly from there, so I think you’ve got a situation where the market is just simply trying to tentatively find the floor.

EUR/USD Forecast Today - 02/12: Euro Drops Friday (Chart)

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Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for the EUR/USD pair is fairly poor, except for the fact that the 1.05 level has been crucial support multiple times. Other than that, I don’t know that you have a whole lot going for the euro at the moment. True, if we break above the 1.06 level, I firmly believe that the euro could go looking to the 1.0750 level, or at least the 50 Day EMA which happens to be in the same area at the moment. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, and I do recognize that there are a lot of things in Europe that I personally don’t want to be involved with. For example, there is a hot war in Ukraine that could very easily cause multiple issues in the European Union, which is reason enough to think that the US dollar is going to continue to have some demand.

Furthermore, we have a weakening Germany, and that is toxic for the European Union. That being said, we could also see a simple technical bounce as people start to take profit heading into the end of the year, because remember that larger traders will have to show profits for their clients as well, so there is a very real danger of some type of hectic move the closer we get to New Year’s Day. However, at this point I think you still have a situation where you are fading signs of exhaustion after rallies.

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Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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