My previous EUR/USD signal on 18th December was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the two support levels were first reached that day.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Idea
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0422, $1.0452, or $1.0487.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0377, $1.0349, or $1.0290.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis last Wednesday, I wrote that the EUR/USD currency pair might show some limited upside before the Fed meeting, but any surprise there about the path of rate cuts would move the US Dollar.
This was a relatively good call, although as the meeting time approached the price did break down below what I thought would be the pivotal point at $1.0480, before falling sharply as soon as it become known that the Fed was lowering its rate cut forecast for 2025.
The Fed’s hawkish policy change has sent the US Dollar, and its treasury yields higher, although Friday’s better than expected US PCE Price Index data took some of the pressure off. However, the Dollar is now rising again ahead of the Christmas shut down, so the price looks as if its on a weakly bearish trajectory before markets basically stop later today.
As it is Christmas eve and we are likely to see quite thin trading, especially as we move into the New York session, I expect the price to range only between its nearest support and resistance levels, so if that happens quite early in the London session, a scalp from a bounce of one of these levels could be a potentially profitable trade.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the Euro or the USD.
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