- Last week's selling of the pound sterling was the strongest.
- The GBP/USD pair's losses were the most prominent, as it plummeted to the support level of 1.2475, the lowest for the currency pair in 7 months before closing the trading stable around 1.2562.
- According to licensed trading companies' platforms, the Bank of England's vote to keep interest rates at 4.75%, which was narrower than expected, led to a wave of selling of the pound sterling.
Pressure factors on the British pound dollar
According to recent forex market trading, several pressure factors have formed on the sterling, as the hawkish statement by the US Federal Reserve helped reduce market expectations of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in February 2025 to less than 50%, but this was reflected after the Bank of England's statement. For its part, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England kept interest rates at 4.75%, which is in line with analysts' expectations.
However, there was a surprise in the vote, with the vote split 6-3 compared to the 8-1 expected. Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor voted for a further 25bps cut. The majority cited significant uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and supply-side issues, particularly following the National Insurance increases. In this context, they wanted more time to assess developments and continued to support a gradual easing of policy. At the same time, there was no change in official guidance, with comments that “a gradual approach to unwinding monetary policy remains appropriate”.
According to BoE Governor Bailey, “With the increasing uncertainty in the economy, we cannot commit to a date or amount of rate cuts in 2025”.
Overall, the minority considered that policy was too restrictive and that a cut was warranted, especially with domestic and international growth risks tilted to the downside. They also considered that current policy would push inflation well below the 2% target. The BoE also noted that growth had been slightly weaker than expected and that there were risks from potential US tariffs.
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The future of Bank of England policy
The division in the voting in the last meeting of the Bank of England strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts in February, especially since one of the six members who voted in favour of fixed interest rates (possibly Bailey) seemed close to supporting the cut this time. Also, Traders moved to price in three interest rate cuts in 2025 from two previously, while bond yields fell. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, which is in line with expectations.
However, there was a shift in interest rate expectations by committee members, with the median expectation being that there would be only two interest rate cuts for 2025 compared to four cuts in the previous update from September. Also, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that a slower pace of interest rate cuts is justified given slightly stronger growth and some disappointing inflation data.
Overall, the stronger dollar is likely to continue to hinder the GBP/USD currency pair from making gains.
Trading Tips:
Any attempts to rebound the GBP/USD price break is an important support level. We have often noted that the pressures will intensify after it, which is the 1.25 level. Selling pressures will remain as long as the currency pair is stable below it.
Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:
As we previously predicted, the movement of the GBP/USD pair below the support level of 1.2500 will increase the dominance of the bears and confirm the strength of the downward trend. The Relative Strength Index has the opportunity to move down before reaching oversold levels. as well as the MACD, which confirms that the bears are ready for further downward movement, and the next important support levels may be 1.2475, 1.2330, and 1.2300, respectively. Conversely, and on the same time frame, the daily chart will not have a primary break of the downward trend without moving above the resistance of 1.2800 again.
Furthermore, it should be taken into account that this week includes Christmas holidays and liquidity often decreases during these holidays and investor interest in trading decreases, so movements may be calm and unstable.
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