- The NASDAQ 100 has been pretty noisy during the month of November, but ultimately it looks like we are closing out with a bit of again.
- At this point in time, the first thing that comes to mind when I think of stock markets in December is that they have a proclivity to go higher.
- The phenomenon is known as the “Santa Claus rally”, which is when money managers on Wall Street do everything they can to catch up to their peers, as they may have underperformed by a few percent.
After all, if you are running other people’s money, the lesson you want to do is explain why you came in 5% underneath the benchmarks that you are aiming for. It’s a lot easier to do in a year when stock markets have been taking, but the stock market has been on fire most of the year for 2024, so underperformance would be punished.
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Earnings season has essentially come and gone, and it was okay, so I don’t think that we have to worry about that aspect, because quite frankly every time the NASDAQ 100 has pulled back, there has been quite a bit of buying based on value, or at least that’s what it appears to be. With this being the case, I look at the technical analysis and see immediately that the 20,000 level is an area that we will probably spend most of the month of December defending. This assumes of course that we even pull back that far. I do believe that December will be a positive month, but I also recognize that we probably have some volatility ahead.
Keep in mind that the upward trend has been somewhat relentless, so it’s also possible that we do more consolidating than anything else. I still believe that we will be more positive than negative, so I look at each dip with a bit of suspicion and recognize that we could be looking at a potential buying opportunity any time we get one. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will be well above 21,000 during the month of December, and quite frankly probably it’s an all-time high again, just above the 21,200 level sometime during the month.
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