After falling in a resounding manner last Wednesday and Thursday in the aftermath of the U.S Fed’s cautious rhetoric, the NZD/USD is near values last seen in October of 2022.
The NZD/USD is around 0.56475 as of this writing depending on the bid and ask being displayed by brokers’ platforms this morning. It is Christmas Eve and Forex trading is extremely light and volume will remain thin the remainder of the week, with a possible uptick in action on Friday, but even then trading will not be significant. What is important is the slide lower in the NZD/USD and the long-term lows the currency pair is bouncing near.
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The past few months for the NZD/USD have seen a bearish slide and support proving consistently vulnerable. Last Wednesday the U.S Federal Reserve served another dose of impetus for NZD/USD momentum lower, when the U.S central bank said they will take a wait and see approach regarding additional interest rate hikes. Yes, the Fed did cut their Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25, but this decrease had been baked into the NZD/USD cake already.
Holiday Trading and Speculative Outlooks
Technical traders looking for perspective on the lower possible terrain the NZD/USD could hit need to pull out long-term charts consisting of five year and all-time historical considerations. The currency pair is near important psychological levels, ones that financial institutions – when they return to work – will certainly be looking at when they make their decisions regarding cash forward outlooks.
The 0.56000 to 0.55000 levels for the NZD/USD are significant and did see trading in their midst in October and September of 2022, and in March and April of 2020. However, just as a warning in case the NZD/USD should go lower, in 2009 the NZD/USD did test the 0.50000 ratio. Traders may think the NZD/USD is oversold, but now may not be the time to look for sustained reversals higher speculatively.
Behavioral Sentiment and Thin Volumes
Because of the holiday trading volumes which will be thin, speculators should remain cautious while considering pursuing the NZD/USD at this time. Spreads between bids and asks will be wide.
- Behavioral sentiment in the New Zealand Dollar is fragile, but it should be pointed out that the currency is acting in a correlated manner to other major currencies struggling against the strength of the USD.
- Outlook for the NZD/USD is not likely going to change over the next two weeks. Speculators should not be overly ambitious regarding potential moves in the near-term.
- Wagering on lower moves may be logical, but quick hitting endeavors using targeted orders will be needed if you choose to participate in these extremely thin markets.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.56600
Current Support: 0.56410
High Target: 0.56925
Low Target: 0.56270
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