- During my daily analysis of the USD/CAD pair, the first thing that captures my attention is the 1.40 level below.
- The 1.40 level has been important multiple times, not only recently, but over the longer term as well. At this juncture, it looks like the market is trying to do everything it can to consolidate at this point in time, perhaps trying to digest some of the massive gains that we had seen previously.
- I do think given enough time, we will have to make a bigger decision, and this Friday might be when that happens.
Friday and Jobs
It’s worth noting that Friday is going to be the biggest day for this pair in the near future. This is because the Non-Farm Payroll announcement comes out of the United States, as well as the Employment Change numbers from Canada. Adding more fun to the potential volatility is the fact that they come out at the same time, so obviously this sets up a very interesting potential move, and the easiest way to trade this on Friday will be simply taken advantage of one that outperforms the other.
As things stand right now, it is anticipated that the Americans will add 218,000 jobs for the month of November, while the Canadians will add 24,704 that same timeframe. If one of them comes out higher than expected while the other one comes out lower than expected, it sets up for one of my favorite trades. That being said, it’s worth noting that the market already “leans to the upside.”
Short-term pullbacks will continue to be potential buying opportunities in the next couple of days, and I believe that between now and those employment announcements, we will more likely than not see a lot of sideways action. The sideways action of course makes a bit of sense, just simply due to the fact that the market is trying to work off some of the excess froth that we had seen previously. Ultimately, I am neutral, but I do recognize that the US dollar is favored longer-term, and of course we have the jobs numbers on Friday that we will have to pay close attention to.
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