The USD/MXN has been able to continue trading near the lower parts of its near-term values as sentiment among financial institutions appears to have stabilized momentarily.
- On Wednesday of last week the USD/MXN jumped higher and was traversing the 20.45000 mark in the aftermath of the U.S Federal Reserve sounding more hawkish than had been anticipated.
- Then on Thursday of last week the 20.54000 vicinity was challenged.
- However, selling started to incrementally increase for the USD/MXN, and by the end of Friday the currency pair was near the 20.04000 ratios.
The ability of the USD/MXN to re-establish the lower part of its month long trading and sustain the values early this morning is a welcome sign for financial institutions concerned about the relationship between U.S and Mexico. The 20.06200 mark is now being displayed as of this writing with fast fluctuations in very light holiday trading.
The 20.00000 Level as a Key Sentiment Ratio in the USD/MXN
The return of the USD/MXN to within sight of the 20.00000 is important for the currency pair, which last traded below this level in a sustained manner before the results of the U.S Presidential election. Yes, the USD/MXN did trade below the 20.00000 on the 7th and 8th of November briefly, but this was part of swift volatility that was being displayed in the currency pair and the lower depths quickly vanished.
If the USD/MXN can sustain its value near the 20.00000 over the next handful of days during the holiday markets now being displayed, this could signal financial institutions believe the currency pair still may be in slightly overbought territory. However, wagering on momentum to become pronounced during Christmas time trading is very dangerous. Few financial institutions will be participating in Forex over the next two weeks, trading conditions will be choppy. The USD/MXN will be able to be traded, but retail speculators should be quite cautious.
USD/MXN Lower Movement Encouraging
The lower move by the USD/MXN since the last week of November is technically interesting. A high of nearly 20.84000 was flirted with on the 26th of November. Last week’s run higher on the U.S Federal Reserve rhetoric might be interpreted as more nervousness, but the ability to then reverse lower back to values which have been tested since the 9th of December is a positive sign for the USD/MXN. Noticeably, the USD/MXN has not correlated to the broad Forex market in many respects.
- This displays the amount of nervous buying that has taken place in the USD/MXN over the past half year due to political and fiscal concerns in Mexico, and the U.S Trump victory in November, and now the potential digestion of the events.
- Speculators are certainly going to find plenty of opportunities to seek volatility in the USD/MXN in the coming months.
- If the USD/MXN remains calm during the holiday season, this may be a positive sign for bearish speculators, but wagers should be kept cautious for the time being.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.07700
Current Support: 20.05600
High Target: 20.10200
Low Target: 20.02400
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