The USD/MXN has been able to sustain lower momentum as financial institutions seem to be adjusting to political realities which will affect economic policies and the currency pair.
- The USD/MXN is near 20.14810 as of this writing as it continues to show a taste for lower trading levels.
- Having been within the grip of a bullish run higher since the Mexican election which created more power for the Morena party in the late spring of 2024, and then being hit by the effect of Donald Trump’s rhetoric.
- the USD/MXN has been able to climb down from its highs seen in the first and last weeks of November.
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After spiking quickly on Monday of last week above the 20.60000 level, the USD/MXN then started to challenge the 20.42000 level as the day progressed, which was a ratio the currency pair had traversed the Friday before. After the selloff last Monday the USD/MXN continued to move lower, and by Tuesday value below the 20.40000 ratio was being sustained.
USD/MXN Selling and A Return to Lower Range
On Wednesday of last week the USD/MXN was still enjoying selling pressure and the 20.25000 level was penetrated. The USD/MXN fell below the 20.20000 mark on Thursday and even as U.S jobs numbers came in a bit stronger than anticipated the currency pair maintained its lower depths.
Nervous sentiment certainly still exists in financial institutions regarding the relationship between Mexico and the U.S, trade negotiations and migrant concerns remain an obstacle. However, the ability of the USD/MXN to return to the lower depths of its higher range will be looked upon optimistically by some who believe agreements will be accomplished between the Trump administration and Mexico.
Next Targets and Correlation for the USD/MXN
The 20.00000 still looks to be far away, but if the 20.10000 starts to see a test in the near-term this will signal some big traders believe the USD/MXN is still in overbought territory. The U.S will publish CPI data on Wednesday of this week. If the USD/MXN maintains its lower boundaries and stays close to the 20.10000 mark today and tomorrow, this will set Wednesday’s U.S inflation as a key event.
The USD/MXN has correlated to the broad Forex market the past week, other major currencies paired against the USD have started to see more tranquil trading and gained versus the dollar.
If the CPI number is weaker than expected this Wednesday it could set the stage for more selling.
If the number is stronger the USD might become slightly stronger.
Financial institutions will be watching the results, and so will the U.S Federal Reserve which makes its interest rate decision on the 18th of December.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.15100
Current Support: 20.13200
High Target: 20.18900
Low Target: 20.09800
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