Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 34.55.
- Set a stop-loss order below 34.35.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.75.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.45.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rose during the beginning of the week, reaching the peak it recorded last week at 34.70 lira per dollar. Currently, the lira continued its slow decline at the same pace that continued throughout the past month. The current declines indicate a controlled movement by the Turkish authorities, who are working to tighten control over currency movements without expanding the negative impact on inflation rates.
Investors followed the effects of the crisis related to allegations of counterfeit US dollars printed abroad entering the Turkish market, which negatively impacted exporters. Reports stated that counterfeit banknotes of $50 and $100 denominations could pass through ATMs and counting machines undetected. As a result, exchange offices and banks are refusing to accept US dollars, complicating financial operations for exporters.
Turkish exporters rely on payments in foreign currencies for their exports, with a commitment to convert 30% of the proceeds of these currencies into the Turkish lira upon receipt. Usually, exporters keep the rest to be exchanged as needed. At the end of the month, exporters face additional challenges in paying salaries and checks due to the counterfeit dollar crisis, as banks and exchange offices refuse to exchange foreign currencies. This obstacle may lead exporters to be unable to meet their financial obligations, threatening their creditworthiness in the market and with banks.
On November 28, the Turkish authorities began inspecting exchange offices and ATMs to limit the potential damage resulting from the circulation of counterfeit dollars. Obviously, this prompted some banks to suspend acceptance of certain denominations of banknotes. The central bank indicated that it is working in cooperation with the judiciary to address the issue, as it submitted a report and guidelines to banks after examining counterfeit banknotes.
Meanwhile, the Turkish Bankers Association announced that ATMs and counting machines are undergoing urgent inspections and updates. This update aims to improve the ability of devices to detect counterfeit banknotes, which contributes to effectively stopping their circulation.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the dollar against the lira (USD/TRY) recorded slight increases at the beginning of the week, around 34.70 lira levels. The pair is expected to continue its increases amid the dominance of the overall upward trend, which is supported by the price moving within an ascending price channel. Concurrently, the pair trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Also, the pair's reliance on the ascending trendline, as shown in the chart. The Turkish lira price forecast includes a rise in the dollar, which presents a buying opportunity with every decline as it targets levels of 34.75 lira and 35.00 respectively.
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