Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 95,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 109,200.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 104,000 and a take-profit at 109,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 95,000.
The pair dropped after Trump failed to mention crypto in his inauguration speech on Monday as some investors were expecting. Still, analysts anticipate that his administration will be highly supportive of the crypto industry.
Trump has nominated Paul Atkins to be the next leader of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins is a widely respected leader who has long championed the industry. As such, analysts expect him to undo some of the policies implemented by his predecessor, Gary Gensler.
Bitcoin may also do well as the odds that he will announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve rose on Polymarket. Such a reserve may include taking the coins in the US custody and converting then into government reserves.
The US's launch of a strategic Bitcoin reserve would likely encourage more countries to buy coins. This would happen at a time when Bitcoin’s supply has continued falling, with exchange balances moving to their lowest level in years.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair rose to the key resistance level at 109,217 for the first time ever. It has formed a double-top chart pattern whose neckline stands at 89,135, its lowest level this month. This pattern is made up of twin peaks and is one of the most bearish patterns in the industry.
The pair has moved above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since October 10. It also remains above the 50-day moving average, a positive sign. Also, the pair has risen above the ultimate resistance of the Murrey Math Lines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other indicators have pointed upwards.
Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely drop further as the market embraces the new normal of the Trump administration. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at the weak, stop & reverse point at 95,000.
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