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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Major Bearish Breakdown in View

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

My previous BTC/USD signal on 7th January was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when any of the support levels were first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

  • Risk 0.50% per trade.
  • Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

BTC/USD Signal Today 13/01: Major Breakdown (Chart)

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $93,010, $91,796, $88,437.
  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $93,854, $96,076 or $97,335.
  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast almost one week ago that the support level of $101,655 was very likely to be that day’s pivotal point. This was a good call as when the price eventually broke below this level it fell much further very quickly. The technical picture had bene looking more bullish with the price rising again to trade above the big round number at $100,000 but this quickly ended.

The technical picture now is even more bearish, with the price printing a series of lower highs and heading towards an area of very key support above $91,000. Just like $101,655 last week, if the price breaks down below $91,796, it will likely fall much further very quickly. On the other hand, this level looks to be pivotal, so it could also be possible to trade a long from a bullish bounce here, although I would not recommend it.

The fundamental and sentimental state of the market support the bearish case, with a runaway USD and risk assets getting sold. In this environment, it is practically impossible for Bitcoin to make a sustained and meaningful rise in price.

I will take a new short trade if we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $91,796 with little lower wick, or from a bearish reversal rejecting the nearest resistance level at $93,854.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.

Ready to trade our daily Forex signals on Bitcoin? Here’s our list of the best MT4 crypto brokers worth checking out.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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