Coffee Arabica once again showed its ability to test the 322.00 support level this past Wednesday. But this value was seen after a move higher early on Monday which showed that large players in Coffee Arabica remain firmly in control of the commodity, this when it jumped to a high above the 334.00 level. This early price action last week likely made short sellers give up on their overly leveraged Coffee Arabica wagers.
Coffee Arabica, for the moment, remains stuck and unable to puncture resistance above, which saw record values for the commodity in the second and third weeks of December 2024. Perhaps some buyers still dream of the 340.00 and 350.00 price levels, but for now the goals seem hard to grasp.
Equilibrium and the Higher Price of Coffee Arabica
At this time last year the price of Coffee Arabica was around the 190.00 level. It doesn’t take a math expert to note the value of Coffee Arabica has jumped and remains elevated. The ability of Coffee Arabica to maintain prices over the 300.00 level has been cemented since early December. It doesn’t mean the 300.00 level will not be challenged lower, but it does highlight the sustained value of Coffee Arabica and what appears for now to be an acceptable price to its traders.
While Coffee Arabica did produce some volatility early last week and then incremental selling, it cannot be said the price of the commodity has been overly volatile compared to previous velocity. The past month in Coffee Arabica in many respects has produced a rather calm trading range with the 320.00 to 333.00 levels acting as support and resistance – yes, with outliers that have occasionally been seen. Day traders should not get too comfortable with the price of Coffee Arabica.
Higher Price Realms in the Soft Commodities
The higher price levels of soft commodities – consisting of Cocoa, Coffee Arabica and Robusta remain elevated compared to their historical averages. Traders may believe this indicates the markets are suspiciously overbought and that a downtrend needs to start. However, betting on a sudden momentum swing lower in Coffee Arabica remains problematic. Cocoa which has shown some reversals lower has continued to create upwards havoc occasionally and punished traders who have bet too strongly on values suddenly declining.
- The same turbulent sentiment in Coffee Arabica has been seen effectively keeping the price higher.
- The commodity ended its trading this past week within the higher elements near 328.40.
- Coffee traders should take into account markets will be closed in New York tomorrow because of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day commemoration.
Coffee Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for Coffee is 320.00 to 334.70
The price range of Coffee Arabica has been tight but traders should stay alert for sudden price velocity breaking out. While resistance around the 322.00 proved durable last week and resistance above near 333.00 to 334.00 was strong, Coffee Arabica still has the ability to prove volatile without any notice. Traders who keep visions of riding a trend lower in Coffee Arabica need to understand holding the commodity for long durations is expensive because of transaction costs, particularly if they are using CFDs.
If Coffee Arabica opens trading this Tuesday lower and begins to test the 326.00 to 324.00 ratios this would be of interest, but for speculators to really believe a change in sentiment has occurred in Coffee Arabica (and other soft commodities) a sustained downturn will have to be demonstrated for several weeks. Given the recent wave of rather tight trading in the commodity, traders should remain pleased with quick hitting results that prove profitable. Trading Coffee Arabica remains challenging for day traders. If the commodity jumps higher early this coming week, the price of Coffee Arabica could quickly flirt with highs.
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