- The Euro initially did try to rally during the trading session on Monday, and it did keep some of its gains. It was a pretty strong day, but it's worth noting that late in the trading session, we have seen the Euro give up some of its gains at the first signs of significant resistance right around the 1.0430 level.
- This is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of troubles above.
The Candle Says It All
By wicking out the way it did, I suspect that this is a market that will do exactly what I thought it would in the sense that when we rally, there will be plenty of overhead supply of euros willing to jump into the market. I think at this point in time, part of what you're looking at is a situation where interest rates in America fell during the day as a news story came out suggesting that the United States is going to put tariffs on everybody, which of course, Donald Trump came out and reassured that was not the truth and in fact was a lie. And at that point, then the euro gave up some of its gains, the interest rate market stabilized a bit and here we are. The longer term downtrend is still very much intact, and I don't see that changing.
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By the end of the week, we get the non-farm payroll announcement that will also be a big factor as well. But really, at this point, it's not until we break above the 1.06 level that I would be concerned about the downtrend. And therefore, I think you've got a scenario where traders continue to look for cheap dollars and they will take advantage of it. That's exactly what I'm doing. I'm fading exhaustion. In fact, I have no interest in buying euros anytime soon.
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