Can the Euro recover?
- The Euro is testing the 1.03 level again, as a support level that has been important.
- It does make a certain amount of sense that we find ourselves here heading into the non-farm payroll announcement.
- That being said, Friday will be very noisy for the Euro as it is the most traded pair against the US dollar.
Reaction to the jobs number will certainly be pretty wild, it typically is. So therefore, I think this might be an interesting pair to watch. Even if you aren't going to trade the Euro directly, you may use this as a gauge to how the US dollar is going to behave against multiple other currency pairs. So, with this being the case, if we do bounce from here, I suspect that we probably have an area that we'll be watching very closely somewhere around 1.044, and that area could be your first barrier.
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What I'm looking for here is to see the euro hopefully bounce a bit, so that I can start fading again. That's been the play for a couple of weeks now, and I just don't see that changing unless there's something truly unforeseen in the jobs number as far as a weakness is concerned in the US economy and it would take something pretty jarring to have people betting that the Federal Reserve is suddenly going to start cutting rates.
Bonds. That’s It
And that's really where the rubber meets the road here due to the bond markets, the interest rates continue to skyrocket in the United States. And in fact, I saw a little blurb that they're starting to do the same thing in Great Britain. So really at this point in time with the European Central Bank willing to cut rates as drastically as needed. I think you've got a situation where it's very likely the US dollar will continue to beat up on the euro. Hopefully we get a little bit of a bounce that you can pick up cheap greenbacks going forward. Given enough time, I fully anticipate that the EUR/USD goes looking to the parity level again.
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