- In the early hours on Thursday, the euro did very little, as we continued to hang around the 1.04 level.
- The 1.04 level of course is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, and with that being said I think we’ve got a situation where the market is struggling with the 50 Day EMA, and while I don’t necessarily think that’s the “be all end all” of what causes markets the move, it is something worth paying attention to as technical traders will be paying close attention to it.
The 1.05 level above also should offer a bit of resistance, and I think that starts a “zone of resistance” that extends all the way to the 1.06 level. The 1.06 level of course is a major area of concern, and it’s not until we break above there that I would think that the euro will have recovered completely. Quite frankly, there’s no real reason to think that the euro should recover for anything more than a technical bounce at this point, so therefore you need to be cognizant of the fact that finding “cheap US dollars” will probably be the way forward.
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Massive Downtrend Continues
My base case scenario is that the massive downtrend will continue in the EUR/USD market, because quite frankly there’s no reason to believe that the European Central Bank is suddenly going to tighten monetary policy, nor is there any reason to believe that the Federal Reserve is going to start loosening monetary policy. While there may be a little bit of wiggle room for both central banks down the road, right now it looks like we are set on a trajectory of stronger US dollars going forward.
Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the European Union has a lot of massive issues at the moment, not the least of which is the fact that tariffs are a very real possibility coming from the United States. Beyond that, we also have to worry about the Ukrainian situation, and of course the overall malaise of economic activity. At this point, the euro continues to be very soft.
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