Potential signal
- I would be a seller of this pair if we get any type of significant bounce.
- I will be watching the 1.2350 level for any signs of exhaustion, shorting the pair and aiming for the 1.21 level, with a stop loss near the 1.2428 level.
In my daily analysis of major currency pairs, I am seeing a theme overall. The US dollar initially rallied a bit during the trading session, and that of course includes the British pound. However, we have since seen the market turn back around, perhaps suggesting that the market was listening to the Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller on CNBC. He was talking about how he thought that the Federal Reserve would cut multiple times this year. However, it is worth noting that most of the FOMC committee doesn’t see it that way.
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That being said, this is a pair that is oversold, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of a bounce. All things being equal, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, but I think given enough time we have a situation where traders will continue to look at the US dollar through the prism of whether or not we are getting some type of value. Ultimately, this is a market that I think would bounce, and I also think that the bounce will probably have a significant amount of traders out there looking to short the British pound.
Technical Analysis
The technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair is obviously very negative, but at this point in time, the market has seen quite a bit of pressure that probably needs to be released. We have seen a couple of attempts to stabilize the British pound, and therefore I think we are probably getting fairly close to trying to rally toward the 1.2350 level. The 1.2350 level is an area that I think should offer significant resistance, as it is a previous support level, and an area where we have seen a lot of noise.
All things being equal, this is a pair that I’ll be looking to short on rallies, so I can take advantage of “cheap US dollars.” I have no interest in Brian the British pound, at least not against the greenback, although it is probably going to fare better than some of the other currencies, thereby opening up crossed pair opportunities.
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