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Nasdaq Forecast: Pulls Back

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally during the early hours on Thursday, and it looked like we were ready to take off.
  • However, later in the day we started to see some issues, and therefore fell off quite drastically.
  • This should not be a huge surprise, because we have seen a lot of negativity as of late, and it’s worth noting that despite the fact that it is no longer the holidays, it’s not necessarily a time of year that’s known for a lot of liquidity.

Nasdaq Forecast Today 03/01: Pulls Back (graph)

Most traders will be looking to next week in order to get involved with any type of size, and even then, they may have to wait until Friday after the jobs report comes out to get a clear picture of what the next move for the Federal Reserve will be. If that’s going to be the case, things could be a bit dicey over the next couple of sessions, but it’s probably worth noting that we recently had formed a “lower high”, which is technically bearish, but I would not necessarily look at it as a major swing high that failed, rather a bit of a short-term noise.

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It is not overly surprising to me to see a market that doesn’t really know what it wants to do with itself because we have the money managers out there looking to put on new positions, and traders will be looking all over the place for various different things, and it does cause a little bit of confusion when there’s almost no volume. I suspect Friday will probably be more of the same set of variables, so you need to be very cautious in general, and I think in that environment you are probably better off waiting.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is still technically bullish, but there are a couple of things that have occurred that could cause traders to hesitate. The fact that we formed that “lower high” and have broken significantly below the 50 Day EMA both could have traders a little bit concerned. Furthermore, we are well below the crucial 21,000 level, so it’s very possible that we could drop to the 20,000 level, where we would meet up with the 200 Day EMA, and possibly find more support there. While I’m not necessarily negative on the NASDAQ 100, I think you probably will be able to find a better price at lower levels.

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Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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