Potential signal
- I’d be a buyer of this pair above the 1.45 level, with a stop loss at the 1.4380 level.
- I’d be aiming for the 1.4750 level.
During the trading session on Thursday, we have seen the US dollar climb a bit against the Canadian dollar in early trading, as Canadian rates have dropped a bit, and of course we still have a complete mess in Ottawa. As long as that’s the case, I think it’s going to be difficult for the Canadian dollar to strengthen for any significant amount of time, especially against the greenback which of course is so strong.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the USD/CAD pair is of course very bullish from the longer-term standpoint, but we are also at a major crossroads in the form of the 1.45 level. The 1.45 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where if we can break above there, then I think it would be a major turn of events, as it would unleash quite a bit of damage to the Canadian dollar.
On the other hand, if we do break down from here, I think there is plenty of support near the 50 Day EMA, with the 1.42 level underneath there being support. That’s an area that previously had been massive resistance, but at this point in time I think we’ve got a situation where the market is likely to continue to pay close attention to the 1.42 level as it is a major level. If we were to break down below there, then we could see a significant sell off, but right now we just don’t have anything out there that suggests the US dollar should suddenly collapse against the Canadian dollar.
That being said, if the Canadian government can actually get back to work, that might be helpful, but at the same time we have the specter of a 25% tariff against the Canadian by the Americans, which will undoubtedly be disastrous for the Canadian economy. The Canadian dollar would of course react in turn.
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