- The USD/ILS is trading near the 3.55700 mark as of this writing with a relatively wide spread being seen for speculators to consider before launching their wagers.
- The USD/ILS has continued to show downwards momentum and is now within value territory not seen in a sustained manner since the spring of 2023.
- Yes, the USD/ILS has tested these lower depths over past year on occasion, like February 2024, but in reality the currency pair has not traded below the 3.50000 ratio since January of 2023.
The Middle East Conflict is not completely over and further surprises could be ahead. However, optimism is starting to burst forward which is clearly more confident about the potential of better economic days to come. If the Middle East conflict can continue to deescalate, some rating services, like Moody’s, which have downgraded Israeli bonds have said they will be open to considering elevating their ratings to better levels.
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Yesterday’s Lows and Signs of Bearishness
The USD/ILS traded below the 3.53000 level yesterday, and the reversal higher which was sparked was not volatile and since then the 3.56000 ratio has worked as resistance. Traders should not bet blindly on the USD/ILS to continue to trade lower near-term, but using resistance up above as a potential place to look for small downside selling wagers may be logical.
No, the political situation in Israel has not produced a sudden ray of hope in many respects, domestically there are still plenty of cat and mouse games being played as political opponents confront each other in the Knesset, but these issues remain on a slow trajectory regarding outcomes. In other words it appears the Netanyahu government is going to remain in power through the mid-term. Meaning the USD/ILS and economic outlooks over the next half year for financial institutions remain rather firm regarding results.
Stable Support as a Target for Short Sellers in the USD/ILS
The 3.53000 to 3.5000 level should be watched to see if it maintains a durable level of support that creates reversals higher. It is important to remember the situation in Israel could still turn volatile within a moment’s notice, but for the time being things appear a bit more tranquil.
- If noise can be kept to a ‘simmering quiet’ there is a chance optimism regarding the Israeli Shekel could continue to improve.
- The USD/ILS has moved to pre-war values and now technically, support levels will become a focus.
- The near-term may produce some choppiness, but the price range of the USD/ILS has actually been quite tame.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 3.55980
Current Support: 3.55300
High Target: 3.56990
Low Target: 3.53100
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