- Highs of nearly 86.7000 were seen on Monday of this week in the USD/INR, this after the currency pair was traversing around 85.9000 vicinity before the U.S jobs reports were published on Friday.
- Because the USD/INR is not a widely traded currency pair in Forex, Monday’s reaction higher was robust and since then highs have been maintained with only incremental selling being displayed.
- In other words, the move higher which was fast on Monday did not see a significant reversal lower, likely pointing out the Reserve Bank of India is alright with the current market price for the USD/INR.
However being alright with the current price of the USD/INR, as of this writing a ratio of 86.4700 is being seen per bids and asks, does not mean that the Reserve Bank of India is happy with current results. The loss of value in the USD/INR may be predictable because global currencies have also struggled against the strength of the USD. Yet, the Reserve Bank of India may be in a position in which they know they cannot fight current sentiment, thus allowing the rather quick climb upwards in the USD/INR.
USD/INR Speculative Wagers
The USD/INR has been within a bullish trend long-term. The USD/INR was trading near the 83.1100 almost a year ago. However, when the math is considered via percentages, the change in value of the USD/INR is actually quite calm when compared to most other major currency pairs. The loss of value in the Indian Rupee will not help citizens of India domestically, inflation and interest rates will have a difficult time eroding.
Speculatively if a wager can be placed on the USD/INR there is little reason to look for strong downside movement in the near-term. Trading of the USD/INR is not permitted in India by retail traders, people must find brokers who are located outside of India, and may have to use VPNs to be able to speculate fully. Looking for occasional reversals lower in the USD/INR would be fighting the trend, so selling positions should only look for quick trades with nearby targets using take profit orders.
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86.0000 Level a New USD/INR Reality
The upwards momentum in the USD/INR has grown in speed since early November. The USD/INR has incrementally been edging higher the past year, but it has been doing this slowing – until November.
- The USD/INR was near the 84.1000 mark on the 5th of November, yes this was election day in the U.S, but the upwards climb since the first week of December has been stronger.
- This suggests the Reserve Bank of India has either made a decision to let the Indian Rupee loss more value, or they do not have effective tools to stop the buying of the USD to counteract the trend.
- If the past month of USD/INR is a combination of both possibilities it could mean the currency pair will cement current price levels and move higher.
- The question seems to be one of velocity, will the USD/INR creep upwards or do it at a rate of speed which has been seen the past handful of weeks?
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 86.4900
Current Support: 86.4290
High Target: 886.5210
Low Target: 86.4020
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