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USD/JPY Forecast: Attempts to Break the Uptrend

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
  • For the second consecutive day, the USD/JPY currency pair has been subject to selling pressure, pushing it towards the support level of 155.21, the pair's lowest level in a month, before settling around 156.20 at the time of writing this analysis.
  • This is pending the remaining important US economic data releases for this week.
  • After the announcement of US inflation figures, today we will see the release of US retail sales, weekly jobless claims, as well as the Philadelphia Fed index.

USD/JPY Analysis Today 16/01: Break the Uptrend (Chart)

Why has the Japanese Yen strengthened against other currencies?

According to Forex trading, the Japanese Yen has continued to gain against other major currencies following hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Yesterday, Ueda stated that the Bank of Japan will discuss the possibility of raising interest rates at its upcoming meeting, indicating the central bank's willingness to tighten borrowing costs if the economy performs as expected. He also expressed his growing confidence in wage increases, citing positive responses from various industries. Ueda's statements are in line with those made by Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Ryozo Himino a day earlier. Additionally, Japanese Finance Minister Katsuhito Kato affirmed that the government would take "appropriate measures" to support the Japanese Yen, further boosting the currency.

Also, Japanese yen gained from a weaker US dollar, driven by a surprise drop in US core inflation, which has fuelled expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year.

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Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, we still recommend buying the dollar against the Japanese yen from every low.

Japanese Government Bond Yields Decline from 14-Year High

According to recent trades and reliable trading platforms, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell by about five basis points to 1.21% on Thursday. Obviously, it retreating from its highest levels in nearly 14 years and tracking a decline in US Treasury yields as a sudden slowdown in core US inflation reinforced dovish expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Japanese central bank will discuss the possibility of raising interest rates at a policy meeting next week, stressing the Bank of Japan’s commitment to raising borrowing costs if the economy performs as expected.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

Dear reader, according to recent trading, bears are trying to break the overall uptrend of the USD/JPY currency pair. These attempts will not succeed without moving towards the support levels of 153.90 and 152.00, which are the most prominent on the daily chart. Conversely, and over the same time period, a return to the resistance level of 158.20 will be important for bulls to prepare to move towards the psychological resistance of 160.00, which will in turn push technical indicators towards oversold levels. Decisively, we still prefer buying USD/JPY from any downward level.

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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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