- During the Thursday session, we have seen the US dollar rally against the Philippine peso, as the market continues to try to get to the 59 PHP level.
- Of course, this was a major ceiling multiple times, and now it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to build up a certain amount of pressure to finally break out.
- It’s also worth noting that the 50 Day EMA underneath should offer plenty of support, as the Philippine peso, albeit a small currency, has been a very interesting place to trade.
US Strength
I think, at this point, the main story here is going to end up being US strength, as the economy in the United States has started to roar back, and quite frankly what the pro-business administration entering service, it’s very likely that the United States is going to start growing again. While this doesn’t necessarily negate Philippine growth, unfortunately for the Philippines, it’s part of Asia, and Asia seems to be struggling. I suspect that at the end of the day, the question will be whether the United States can drag Asia back up with it. A lot of this comes down to whether there will be more demand for Chinese goods because, quite frankly, it does not look like China is going to pick itself back up. The Philippines of course are in the region, so it’s a little bit of a knock-on effect.
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However, the Philippine economy was rather resilient for quite some time, so maybe this is just a matter of playing “catch up.” Nonetheless, I think the US dollar is going to be like a wrecking ball against a lot of things in 2025, so at this point, we will have to pay close attention to the 59 PHP level, because if we can break above it, it’s likely that the US dollar will power higher, going toward the 60 PHP level before all is said and done. Short-term pullbacks should see plenty of support all the way down to at least the 57.75 PHP level, where the 200 Day EMA currently resides.
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