Full volume is nearly back in Forex and by early tomorrow trading will begin to resemble normal conditions, this after a two week holiday period which caused thin transactions for the USD/ZAR. The currency pair is near the 18.66850 ratio as of this writing with quick fluctuations occurring. The spread between bid and ask should be watched over the next couple of hours and it will likely begin to narrow, which will be good for speculators.
The USD/ZAR continues to trade in the higher part of its mid-term range, but the broad Forex market remains rather fragile via behavioral sentiment in financial institutions as they seek clarity regarding mid-term outlooks.
The USD/ZAR has been trading in correlated manner to the broad Forex market. While it may look overbought, traders should refrain from being too ambitious about large potential downturns in the near-term.
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Full Volumes and Calmer Forex Conditions
Today’s and tomorrow’s trading in the USD/ZAR will deliver a solid barometer regarding sentiment, this after full volumes demonstrate the attitudes of larger players in the global market. The USD/ZAR did trade near highs the past two weeks, but the results remain suspicious and perhaps it will be best for retail speculators to watch trading the next two days. Because of the U.S jobs numbers which will be published on Friday via the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics, choppy conditions may be seen over the near-term.
The USD remains in a remarkably strong position against most major currencies. The South African Rand has lost value since late September, but has done this in a rather calm manner. The USD/ZAR in the near-term likely has 18.60000 as a support target that financial institutions may feel is logical for the time being, but aiming for this may be too far a goal for smaller traders who cannot sit and wait within overnight positions.
Impact of the Week Ahead on the Short-Term
The South African Rand may be considered within overbought territory by traders who have a mid-term view. However, because fragile sentiment exists in larger currencies like the EUR, GBP and JPY, the ZAR is not likely to trade in way that doesn’t correlate to their behavior against the USD.
- Yes, the USD/ZAR is its own currency pair, but financial institutions tend to follow USD centric notions against the three major currencies which influence their decisions with the USD/ZAR.
- A test of the range between 18.63000 and 18.71000 may be the playing field produced near-term in the USD/ZAR which could open the door to traders seeking potential reversals via technical perspectives.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
- Current Resistance: 18.68700
- Current Support: 18.66200
- High Target: 18.71600
- Low Target: 18.63300
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