AUD/USD Forex Signal: Range Continues

My previous AUD/USD signal last Monday was not triggered.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.50%

• Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6308 or $0.6352.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6233 or $0.6172.

• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

In my previous forecast, I thought that the price would likely continue trading sideways between $0.6233 and the closest resistance at $0.6308. This was a good, accurate call, and it continues to be my forecast today.

In today’s AUD/USD forecast I predict that the AUD/USD currency pair is most likely to continue to trade sideways, due to the following factors:

1. We see price moving down from the upper half of the zone between the nearest support and resistance levels, with clear signs that the support and resistance are exerting strong influence.

2. The zone between the closest support at $0.6233 and the closest resistance at $0.6308 is wide.

3. Neither currency within this pair is looking strong right now, although there are fundamental and monetary reasons for the USD to be strong, and the USD is still bullish within a valid long-term trend. The Australian Dollar is getting hit by tariff threats to both metals and China, as well as the relatively poor state of the Australian economy. However, the USD did not get the boost by yesterday’s surprise uptick in US CPI (inflation) as the news of peace talks with Russia over Ukraine are sinking havens like the US Dollar.

For these reasons, I am equally OK with a short trade from a rejection of $0.6308 or a long trade from a rejection of $0.6233. Be conservative with taking profit when the price is ranging like this.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be releases of PPI and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.