Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 89,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 100,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 101,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 90,000.
The BTC/USD pair has remained under pressure as many buyers remained in the sidelines amid rising macro risks. Bitcoin price retreated to $96,000, down from the year-to-date high of $109,200.
Crypto traders are concerned that Donald Trump will implement more tariffs against key countries like Canada, Mexico, and those in the European Union. He has already implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese goods as he seeks to narrow the trade deficit.
Tariffs would intensify the trade war between the US and its most important trading partners, leading to substantial volatility in the market.
The BTC/USD pair has remained under pressure as investors focused on the potential hawkishness of the Federal Reserve. Economists expect the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer since the economy is fairly strong.
Data released on Friday confirmed this as they revealed that the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% in January as the economy added over 140k jobs. Bitcoin and other risky assets tend to underperform when the Federal Reserve is hawkish,
Stil, there are some positive signs that may push Bitcoin higher later this month. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained strong and are now worth over $40 billion cumulatively. They jumped by over $171 million on Friday, a sign that institutional investors and Americans are buying.
Blackrock’s IBIT has over $56 billion in assets, while Fidelity’s FBTC has $20 billion. The other large Bitcoin ETFs are from Grayscale, Ark Invest, and Bitwise.
Further, on-chain data shows that many crypto investors are still holding on to their Bitcoin holdings.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart reveals that the BTC/USD pair has been in a steady downtrrend after peaking at 109,200 this year. It has dropped and moved below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages, a sign that bears are in control.
Bitcoin has also formed a double-top chart pattern around the 108,320, and whose neckline is at 89,040. This is one of the most bearish patterns in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed downwards.
Therefore, the pair may continue falling as sellers target the key support level at 90,000. A move above the resistance at 100,000 will invalidate the bearish view.
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