Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 100,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 90,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 90,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 100,000.
Bitcoin price is still stuck in a narrow range, but technicals suggest that a strong bullish or bearish breakout will happen soon. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 96,270 on Thursday morning, about 10% below its highest level this year.
Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation phase as investors remain concerned about several key factors. The main key concern is that US inflation is still so high and is moving in the opposite direction.
Data released last week showed that the headline consumer inflation data rose from 2.7% in December to 3.0% in January. Core inflation has remained stubbornly above 3%. After falling to 3.2% in December, the core CPI rose to 3.3% in January.
Worse, all data show that inflation will likely continue rising in the coming months, especially when Donald Trump implements his tariffs. He has proposed tariffs on all major US trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada.
Bitcoin price has also wavered as traders eye the next actions by Donald Trump in terms of crypto regulation. One potential catalyst will be the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), which may lead to more demand at a time when supply is waning. Bitcoin balances on exchanges have continued falling as the mining difficulty has jumped.
The BTC/USD pair reacted mildly to the latest Federal Reserve minutes. These minutes showed that the Fed will continue to maintain a hawkish tone because of the rising inflation. Historically, Bitcoin does well when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The coin has recently reacted mildly to major events like Fed actions.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has remained in a tight range in the past few months. It has been stuck below the double-top point at 108,323 and the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, with two lines approaching their confluence level. That is a sign that a bullish or bearish breakdown will happen in the next few days.
A bullish breakout may see the pair rise to the psychological point at 100,000. On the other hand, a strong bearish breakdown may see it falling to the next support at 90,000.
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