Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 98,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 89,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 93,000 and a take-profit at 98,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 89,000.
The BTC/USD exchange rate remained under pressure on Tuesday morning as concerns about tariffs and the upcoming tariffs from the United States rose. Bitcoin retreated to a low of 94,660, much lower than the year-to-date high of 109,382.
Bitcoin will have two main catalysts this year. First, NVIDIA, the second-biggest company in the world, will publish its financial results on Wednesday, which may have a major implication on the market. NVIDIA has become one of the most important companies globally because of its role in the AI industry that have propelled stocks and crypto higher in the last two years.
Therefore, weak NVIDIA results may lead to more volatility in the market as it happened earlier this month when DeepSeek was unveiled. DeepSeek is a Chinese company that claims to have built its AI model for the fraction of what firms like ChatGPT and xAI have spent. Its business model has threatened NVIDIA because the latter sells expensive GPUs. DeepSeek’s launch led to a big crash of Bitcoin and other assets.
The other potential catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming decision on tariffs by Donald Trump. Several major ones will take effect on March 1. For example, the US will implement a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, a move that will hit the manufacturing and construction industries.
The US will also implement tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, a move that will affect trade volumes worth billions of dollars.
Tariffs have a big impact on all assets because of their impact on the Federal Reserve. The bank may decide to hike interest to tackle inflation, a move that will lead affect the economic growth. Bitcoin tends to underperform the market when the Fed is hiking rates.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a steady downward trend in the past few weeks. It has dropped from the January high of 109,300 to 94,500, and moved below the 50-day moving average.
The percentage price oscillator (PPO) has dropped below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below the neutral point at 50. While this price action is bearish, the coin has also formed a small falling wedge pattern, signaling that it may bounce back soon. If this happens, the next level to watch will be at 98,000.
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