- The bulls' attempts to push the EUR/USD currency pair above the 1.0515 resistance level were unsuccessful, as the Euro did not find many positive catalysts.
- Consequently, the bears returned the currency pair downwards, settling around the 1.0435 support level at the time of writing this analysis, just before investors react to the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
Why did the EUR/USD bulls fail again?
According to Forex market trading, the Euro has returned to its broader downward trend, as traders weighed the implications of increased defence spending on inflation and interest rates. With the US announcing plans to reduce support for Ukraine and continue negotiations with Russia to end the war, European governments met in Paris to discuss alternative support strategies. However, the informal meeting ended without concrete measures being taken. Strengthening defence and aiding Ukraine could cost major European economies an estimated $3.1 trillion over the next decade.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points in each of the next three meetings, lowering it from the current 2.75%. Forecasts increasingly suggest that prices may fall below 2% by 2026.
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Is the end of the Russian Ukrainian war positive for the Euro?
In this regard, Forex currency experts at Barclays Bank warned in a weekly Forex market note that progress towards a ceasefire in the Ukraine war is "far from being positive for the Euro." Experts believe that a peace agreement plan in Ukraine does not seem easy to implement and does not enhance European security. The technical analysis team at Barclays adds: "In our view, the premiums associated with tariffs and the war are currently lower than our models dictate, and we believe that declines are opportunities to re-engage from the long side in the dollar."
According to forex trading and through licensed trading companies’ platforms, the euro, the pound and other European currencies rose by more than one percent against the US dollar last week on the news that President Donald Trump had taken initial steps towards a peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Trump made it clear that there is no place at the negotiating table for European countries, indicating to European capitals that they will have to take more responsibility for defending Europe. For their part, European leaders have expressed concern about being marginalized in discussions between the United States and Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron is coordinating an emergency meeting of European leaders to discuss further steps, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb has called for increased sanctions on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s position.
The exclusion of European countries from the peace talks raised questions about the future security structure of Europe and the role of NATO. According to Barclays, "Trump's peace plan in Ukraine is also a net negative for European security and does not bring the resumption of gas flows from Russia closer."
Trading Tips:
We still recommend selling the euro against the US dollar from every level of the rise without risking the factors of the strength of the US dollar continue and may remain for some time.
European peace talks in Saudi Arabia
US and Russian negotiators will meet in Saudi Arabia this week to outline the peace plan, without any input from Ukraine. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky firmly stated that Ukraine will not accept any peace agreement resulting from talks between the United States and Russia if Ukraine is not an active participant. For the Forex market, all this points to limited potential for further relief-like gains. Barclays adds: "The scope for further upside in European Forex is limited in the event of a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The interim details are negative for European security, and the war premium is low. In fact, the Euro and the Forex market in Central and Eastern Europe face greater downside risks asymmetrically if these hopes dissipate."
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to recent trading and through the daily chart, the formation of an upward channel for the EUR/USD currency pair still faces more obstacles. The bulls' attempts to move strongly upwards will not succeed without moving towards the resistance levels of 1.0550 and 1.0640, respectively. In contrast, and over the same time period, the bears' break of the 1.0370 support level will trigger new selloffs. Technically, the EUR/USD currency pair will remain subject to signals from global central bank officials and the extent of investors' appetite for risk or lack thereof. In addition to the future of US trade wars and their impact on the future growth of the Eurozone economy.
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