CAD/JPY
The Canadian dollar has rallied rather significantly during the week against the Japanese yen, and it now looks as if the market is trying to do everything it can to stay in the same range that it is been in for a while, with the ¥160 level underneath being a bit of a floor, but at the same time I do see a lot of resistance near the ¥110 level. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that although the Canadian dollar has strengthened during the week, it’s not exactly a strong currency. The Japanese yen is bolstered by the idea that the Bank of Japan might be doing a bit of inflation fighting. I expect choppy sideways action.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has fallen during the trading week against the Mexican peso, but at this point in time it looks like the pair is still stuck in a range. The 20 MXN level on the bottom offer significant support, while the 21 MXN level above offers significant resistance. As we have had the tariffs put on pause, this has helped the Mexican peso, but we still haven’t got to the point where we have a permanent deal, so the jury is still out when it comes to this pair.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has plunged against the Canadian dollar during the trading week to break down below the 1.42 level. This of course is a very negative week, as traders are starting to price out the idea of a trade war with the United States. I think this is a mistake at this point, because quite frankly Justin Trudeau has shown no real interest in trying to sort something out with the Americans. If Trump starts tariff in the Canadians, this market will turn around and skyrocket to the upside. I would be very careful here.
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Gold
Gold originally broke above the $2900 level but has given back quite a bit of the gains late in the week, as it looks like we have finally gotten a little bit too far ahead of ourselves. Gold markets have been particularly noisy in the Asian session, so I’m not real sure what’s going on there, but it is a pattern I have been watching closely. At this point, I think it’s likely that we will see the market pull back a bit, but that should only end up offering a buying opportunity given enough time.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin initially pulled back just a bit during the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of life. By doing so, the market looks as if it is trying to stay in the previous consolidation zone that we had been in. The $90,000 level below continues to be a major floor, while the $110,000 level above offers resistance. I think you continue to see more consolidation than anything else in the market right now.
USD/CHF
The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Swiss franc but then plunged toward the 0.90 level. This is a market that I think is still very much in consolidation, but this next week or so could have a major influence as to where we go longer term. If we can turn around and bounce, it makes quite a bit of sense that we will go looking to the 0.92 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the 0.89 level, then it’s likely that the market could drop rather significantly from there to go looking at the 0.88 level.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 was very bullish during the week, breaking above the crucial 22,000 level again. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, especially as we close toward the very top of the overall range for the week. The question now is whether or not there is a being some type of tariff war kicking off, or perhaps we continue to see tensions cool, and if they do that should help NASDAQ 100 quite significantly. All things being equal, this remains a “buy on the dips” market as well.
Silver
Silver initially was very choppy during the week but in early Friday trading silver leapt above the $32.35 level. Since then, we have seen the silver market crater on Friday and therefore I think you need to be very cautious here. Short-term pullbacks could end up being buying opportunities, the last thing I would do is put a ton of money into this market heading into such volatility. Remember, silver is extraordinarily volatile under the best of conditions, so caution is warranted. Regardless, I don’t have any interest in getting short here, but might look for better pricing to get long.
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