- The USD/CAD pair continues to be somewhat stagnant, as we have settled back into the range we were in before the tariff threats were imposed.
- That being said, I think we have to look at this through the prism of nothing changing at the moment, because there is a 30 day moratorium on the potential tariffs between the 2 countries.
- That being said, there isn’t exactly a lot of forward movement at the moment, so I think market participants are essentially frozen at this juncture, trying to sort out whether or not things are about to get better, or they are about to get worse.
Ultimately, this is a market that will be driven on the latest headlines, and unfortunately, the latest tweet coming out of Donald Trump. We have played this game before, and it is a very dangerous one to say the least. Because of this, I think you have to look at this as a market that is going to continue to be very choppy and undecided, but ultimately, this is a market that I think goes higher due to the fact that regardless of what happens next, the Canadian economy is still the Canadian economy.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this USD/CAD pair remains somewhat sideways after a very big bullish move. I think we are just simply in a “waiting pattern”, and this makes a certain amount of sense as we are trying to sort out whether or not traders are going to get enough information to make a reasonable decision anytime soon. If tariffs are avoided altogether, I would anticipate that the market will break below the 50 Day EMA rather quickly, and then down to the 1.42 level. Anything below there starts to become a serious correction.
On the other hand, if we turn around and rally it’s likely that the 1.45 level will be targeted, which of course is a major round number, and an area where we have seen a lot of action in the past. I think we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility in this market, but this is a scenario where traders just simply don’t know what to do in the short term, except for perhaps follow the longer term uptrend.
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