- Recent trades were generally bullish for the Japanese yen against other major currencies, most notably the decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen pair USD/JPY towards the support level of 150.93.
- This was the lowest for the currency pair in more than two months, and closed the week's trading stable around the level of 151.38 after investors reacted to the announcement of US employment figures, which affects the future of the US Federal Reserve's policy.
Why has the Japanese Yen strengthened recently?
According to recent trades on reliable trading platforms, the Japanese Yen has gained strength against other major currencies with growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year. On Thursday last week, Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura stated that the central bank should raise the interest rate to at least 1% in the latter part of the 2025 fiscal year. Recent economic data also revealed a 2.7% year-on-year increase in household spending in Japan, which represents the first growth in five months and significantly exceeds the expected 0.2% gain.
In addition, data earlier this week showed that real wages rose for a second straight month in December, with nominal wage growth hitting its highest level in nearly three decades, largely driven by higher winter bonuses. Now, financial markets are speculating that Japan’s annual spring wage negotiations could yield another 5% increase this year.
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Trading Tips:
We recommend buying the USD/JPY from any downward level but without taking excessive risk.
US Stock Markets Under Selling Pressure
At the end of last week's trading, US stock markets were under selling pressure, as concerns about tariffs and inflation escalated again in Wall Street markets. According to stock trading platforms, the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell by 0.9%, giving up the week's gains. This is one of the worst declines for the index so far in the new year, but it remains close to the record it set two weeks ago.
According to trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 444 points, the most prominent of which was a sharp decline in Amazon shares after its latest earnings report, which led to the Nasdaq Composite Index losing a market-leading 1.4%.
Conversely, US Treasury yields rose following a disappointing report on Friday morning that indicated a significant deterioration in sentiment among US consumers. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan showed that US consumers expect inflation to reach 4.3% in the coming year, the highest forecast since 2023. This was a full percentage point higher than what consumers expected a month ago, marking the second consecutive unusually large increase. Economists pointed to the possibility of imposing US tariffs on a wide range of imported products, as suggested by President Donald Trump, which could ultimately lead to higher prices for US consumers.
For his part, Trump said at a White House news conference on Friday that he would likely make an announcement on Monday or Tuesday about “reciprocal tariffs, where one country pays a lot or we pay a lot, and we do the same.”
The U.S. consumer sentiment data followed a mixed update on the labour market, often the most widely anticipated economic report each month. The data showed that U.S. hiring last month was less than half the rate in December, but it also included encouraging signs for workers: The unemployment rate fell, and workers saw bigger gains in average wages than economists had expected. Overall, all the data combined could keep the Fed on hold when it comes to US interest rates. The Fed began cutting its key interest rate in September to ease pressure on the economy and labour market, but warned at the end of the year that it may cut less frequently in 2025 than previously expected given concerns about stubbornly high inflation.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
In recent trades, the USD/JPY currency pair has been trading below the 100-hour moving average. The pair rebounded to avoid reaching oversold levels on the 14-hour Relative Strength Index. In the near term, bears will aim to continue the current decline towards support levels of 151.20 or lower to the psychological level of 150.00. Conversely, bulls will aim to take advantage of rebounds to around 152.00 or higher at the resistance of 153.20.
In the long term, based on the daily chart, USD/JPY is also trading in a descending channel formation. Technically, the 14-day RSI continues to support the bearish bias as it approaches oversold levels. Therefore, bears will target long-term declines around 148.85 or lower at 145.00 support. Conversely, on the same time frame, bulls will look to capitalize on a bounce higher for gains around 155.30 or higher at 158.00 resistance.
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