- The US dollar has plunged against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday, as we see a continuation of the overall pullback.
- That being said, part of this is the bank of Japan governor suggesting that they are now dealing with inflation and therefore it's possible that they will start to raise rates in a longer term strategy.
- While that might be true, the reality is that the interest rate difference between the two are still miles apart.
So, I'm not really wanting to short the dollar against the yen. I'm more or less waiting to see how it behaves in this general vicinity. What's of particular interest to me is that we are right at the 200 day EMA and we did stop. So, it'll be interesting to see if it holds.
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Non-Farm Payroll
Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that Friday is non-farm payroll Friday, so you have to be a little cautious there as well. Now, having said that, we have to start to ask the question, is the trend changing? We don't know yet. We are getting there though. We are certainly getting to that point. So, I think this is a pair that is going to be more or less short-term driven and determined, but we will have to watch the 10-year yield in JGBs in Japan and the 10 year yield in America to give us a bit of an idea as to how this may play out.
Interest rate differential is particularly interesting in Japanese yen related pairs as it is part of the carry trade. So, I always keep an eye on that. Nonetheless, the 200 day EMA could offer a bit of technical support. And then of course, Friday is a massive wild card with the employment numbers giving us an idea as to where we may go in the longer term. During the day, there was someone from the Federal Reserve talking about the possibility of an interest rate cut between now and the end of the year, which is still very possible. But these are the same people that at one point were screaming about transitory inflation. They're almost always wrong. So, at this point in time, it's a wait and see. But I do think this is a very important level to watch.
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