- During the trading session on Thursday, we've seen quite a bit of noisy and choppy trading, but I think the world is just a bit exhausted at this point.
- There are a few places that show just how tired people are, more than the US dollar against the Mexican peso, as it has been very choppy for a while.
We did initially try to rally in favor of the US dollar on Thursday, but we have given back those gains and turned around to see a little bit of negativity. Nonetheless, we find ourselves very much in the same consolidation area that we have been in previously. As I think most of what's going on with the Mexican peso is going to be people waiting around to see whether or not tariffs get extended, or if they get completely ignored.
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We'll have to wait and see. But at this point in time, there is still a couple of weeks for the Mexicans to either make Trump happy or they don't. And if they don't, then tariffs come into the picture and the US dollar will almost certainly shoot straight up in the air against the Mexican peso.
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On the other hand, if the tariffs are called off, there's a very real possibility that this USD/MXN pair drops a bit from here, perhaps dropping below the 20 Mexican peso level before it's all said and done. That's not really my base case scenario, but it is something worth perhaps thinking about as traders continue to look at this through the prism of interest rate differential, which does favor Mexico, but the central bank in Mexico has cut rates pretty significantly here recently. So that is worth paying attention to as well. In other words, I think you have a situation where we have a lot of noisy trading here. My best case scenario, at least at the moment, is going to be for this pair to continue to trade between 20 and 21 pesos as we try to sort things out.
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