Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 84,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 91,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 91,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 84,000.
The BTC/USD pair continue its recovery and hit its highest level since 88,663, its highest level since March 7 this year. It has been in a slow uptrend after bottoming at 76,485 earlier this month.
Bitcoin’s recovery coincided with the strong performance of the stock market, a sign that the market embraced a risk-on sentiment after reports that Donald Trump will tweak his reciprocal tariffs. In this, he is expected to exclude some sensitive industries from these reciprocal tariffs.
The rebound also happened after sell-side analysts advised their advisors that the worst was now over for the equities market. This includes analysts from banks like JPMorgan,, Morgan Stanley, and Evercore ISI. While the bullish call targeted the stock market, it also applied to the crypto industry since the two industries are highly correlated.
Still, Bitcoin’s recovery faces some risks this week. For one, Donald Trump thrives in uncertainty, meaning that he could tweak his messaging on tariffs, which will undo the optimism. Also, as shown below, the coin has formed a risky chart pattern, pointing to a potential bearish breakdown in the coming weeks.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has held steady in the past few weeks, rising from a low of 76,485 to a high of 89,000 for the first time in weeks.
Bitcoin has moved slightly above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It has also retested the important resistance level at 89,238, its lowest swing in January and the neckline of the double-top pattern at 108,400.
Bitcoin is now attempting to move above the 50-day moving average. Most importantly, it is attempting to invalidate the forming rising wedge pattern. This is a popular bearish pattern comprising of two ascending and converging trendlines.
The risk, however, is that it has formed the rising wedge and the break-and-retest pattern by retesting the neckline of the double-top pattern.
Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely have a bearish breakdown, with the next target being at 84,000. A move above the resistance at 91,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook. Such a move will point to more upside, potentially to the resistance at 95,000.
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