Potential trade:
- I am a buyer here.
- I would have a stop loss at the 0.9450 level, aiming to get back to the 0.9650 area.
- The euro initially rallied against the Swiss franc, but there was some random freak out in risk appetite during the session.
- And now we've seen money flow back towards the Swiss franc.
- We've seen a bit of a risk off move during the day again. I really don’t know what that might have been, but somebody panicked somewhere and well, here we are.
The 0.95 level below should continue to be support. So, I think we're probably in an area where buyers might be interested unless of course we get more freak outs. A bounce from here could send this pair looking to the 0.9650 level over the longer term, which was the latest swing high. But I'd also point out that this is a market that does tend to be very grinding and very slow.
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This is a Slow Market
So, what you are not expecting to see is rapid movement. And in fact, interestingly enough, it seems like a lot of concern, whatever caused it, has suddenly dissipated. So, who knows? Probably something to do with bond markets. I'll have to do some research, but right now the interest rate differential still favors the euro. So, unless everybody's panicking, I like this pair.
I think the Swiss National Bank has made it abundantly clear that not only are they loose with the monetary policy, but they are going to be for the foreseeable future. And therefore, you want to short the Swiss franc when you can. The euro has been one of the better performing currencies as of late. And as long as that stays the case, it makes perfect sense to go long in this market. If we break down below the 200 day EMA, then I wash my hands of the trade.
That is roughly at 0.9470. So, if we break down below there. I just washed my hands of it. Don't be bothered by it for a while. This is a market that can be somewhat frustrating, but if you get the trend right, assuming that there is one, it can go in that direction for quite some time.
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