- During the session on Thursday, we have seen the euro dropped pretty significantly against the US dollar, but I would also point out that we are still within the previous consolidation range, so this isn’t necessarily the “death of the euro” at the moment.
- That being said, this is a bit interesting, because it looks like the euro was going to continue to punish the US dollar without much pause.
The Federal Reserve meeting, statement, and press conference gave traders a lot to think about over the last 24 hours, and it appears that they are not quite ready to give up on the US dollar completely. This will be interesting, because it has major ramifications in multiple markets around the world. After all, if the US dollar starts to strengthen again, that could cause a lot of chaos in other financial markets as people would look at it as a very cautious move overall.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this EUR/USD pair is still positive, and I would keep a significant amount of attention on the 1.08 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has seen a lot of action in the past. If we can stay above there, then it just means that we are probably going to continue going sideways, but if we cannot stay above there and we start falling, then you have to start thinking about a reversal of this trade. In that environment, the 200 Day EMA would be the next potential support level, which is near the 1.0680 level. After that, you could be looking at a dropped to the 1.06 level which has of course been important multiple times over the last 6 months.
Pay close attention to bond yields in Germany, because that has been the main culprit for the action that we have seen recently, and therefore I think a lot of traders will continue to look at that interest rate situation and whether or not there is bond yields continue to climb at an astronomical rate like they had been. If they start dropping, that’s another reason to think that this market falls.
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