Key Points of Gold Analysis:
- Gold's trend remains bullish.
- Global tensions and weak sentiment support gold buying.
- Gold ignores indicators moving toward overbought levels.
Trading in narrow ranges has been the most prominent feature of the gold price index's performance over the past four trading sessions, technically foreshadowing a strong upcoming movement in either direction. So far, the general trend for spot gold prices is upward, and the historical psychological resistance of $3,000 will remain, confirming the strength of bulls' control over the trend.
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Will gold prices rise in the coming days?
According to trading on gold trading company platforms, gold prices are currently near their record highs. Gold bullion market gains have increased amid its safe-haven appeal, given the uncertainty surrounding the imminent imposition of US reciprocal tariffs. While President Donald Trump's tariff plan, scheduled for April 2nd, is expected to be more targeted and limited than his previous pledges, the new round of tariffs will still represent a significant escalation for the United States and its trading partners.
On the US monetary policy front, investors await speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for insights into this year's monetary policy, along with US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will be released tomorrow, Friday, for clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps.
On the geopolitical front, supporting the gold market, the United States reached agreements with Ukraine and Russia this week to halt naval and energy attacks, with Washington pledging to push for the easing of some sanctions on Moscow, slightly diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven.
US Dollar Price Turns Upward
According to Forex currency market trading, the US Dollar Index, which measures the US currency's performance against a basket of other major currencies, has risen above the 104.66 resistance, its highest in three weeks, supported by weak economic data and continued uncertainty about US trade policy. Recent data showed an unexpected decline in new orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, after three months of increases.
The US dollar price performance was affected by the announcement of a decline in US consumer confidence to its lowest level in more than four years, highlighting growing concerns among households. Adding to market caution, investors await details of potential new US tariffs, with President Trump expected to announce measures targeting cars, electronic chips, and pharmaceuticals next week.
Amid these tensions, traders are focusing on taking defensive positions, supporting the dollar as a safe haven. Additionally, the focus remains on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report released on Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Trading Tips:
The gold trend remains upward, but beware of trading within narrow ranges, as it may be followed by a strong move in either direction.
Rising US Treasury yields
Another factor affecting the gold market is the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.355%, its highest in a month, reflecting increased investor uncertainty about the economy. In general, concerns about a potential economic recession are growing, with expectations of an economic slowdown in late 2025. Market sentiment was also negatively affected by President Trump's changes to tariff policies, raising fears of a global trade war that could lead to a slowdown in US economic growth.
Recently, weak economic data has increased the pressure, with US consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low, and new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, falling for the first time in four months.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to daily chart trading and gold analysts' predictions, the general trend for gold prices remains upward, and the historical psychological resistance of $3,000 per ounce will remain a symbol of the bulls' strong control. Despite technical indicators moving towards strong overbought levels after the recent strong gains, gold bullion investors are focusing more on the factors strengthening gold prices, which include increasing global geopolitical and trade tensions, increased central bank purchases of gold bullion, and the shift in central bank policies towards easing. Currently, the closest resistance levels for prices are $3,038, $3,055, and $3,070 per ounce, respectively.
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