Bitcoin
Bitcoin plunged during the week, but it looks as if it is trying to find support near the 50 Week EMA, and it’s probably worth noting that the area just below there is the $75,000 level, an area that a lot of people would be paying close attention to. The shape of the candlestick is a bit of a hammer, so that it also will bring in technical traders, so it’ll be interesting to see if we can break above the top of the hammer. If we do, we could very well see Bitcoin decide to look to the $90,000 level.
EUR/USD
The Euro has rallied again during the week, but it seems like it is struggling at the 200 Week EMA, and it also looks as if the 1.09 level is offering a significant amount of resistance. If we were to break down below the 1.08 level, then it’s very possible that the euro could start to break down. In the environment we find ourselves in right now, it’s not a real stretch to see that it’s possible people would run back to the US dollar for some type of safety. The euro looks like it’s wobbling a bit.
GBP/USD
The British pound initially jumped during the course of the trading week, but it looks as if the 1.30 level is a significant barrier that the market is going to struggle to continue to go higher. At this point, it’s also worth looking at the recent high for the week as a technical indicator worth watching, in the sense that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the massive plunge that we had seen late last year. The fact that we are forming a shooting star also gives credence to the idea that the US dollar might get a little bit of a repeat for this next week.
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USD/CAD
The US dollar has initially rallied against the Canadian dollar during the course of the past week, but it is also worth noting that it give back quite a bit of the gains as we got to the 1.45 level. All things being equal, this is a market that was noisy, and I think it will continue to be as we will continue to react tariff announcements and of course the rhetoric coming from both sides of the border in North America.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar initially fell against the US dollar during the course of the week but then turned around to show signs of life. That being said, the range is still very tight in the New Zealand dollar markets, as traders are continuing to punish New Zealand due to its reliance on Asia, and the fact that commodities in general have been struggling. In fact, the New Zealand dollar is one of the few larger currencies that has not fared well against the greenback for the last several weeks. Because of this, I think we are still in the midst of trying to go sideways overall.
DAX
The German index fell during a huge part of the week but has seen significant buying since then and it ended up forming a bit of a hammer. The €22,000 level continues to be the floor in the market at the moment, and I think at this point the text looks very much like a market that you would be a buyer of short-term dips in. If we can break above the €23,450 level, then it opens up the door for a move to the €24,000 level. Regardless, I think any time this market drops, you have to start thinking along the lines of being a buyer.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 ended up being negative again for the week, reaching all the way down to the 19,129 level. That being said, the market did bounce a bit from there, and it is worth noting that volume is starting to pick up. At this point, I believe that the NASDAQ 100 is going to try to for some type of bounce, but we don’t have the momentum yet that would be worth buying it. The question now is whether or not this was just a 10% correction, or if it was something worse?
USD/MXN
The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Mexican peso this week but has plunged below the 20 MXN level. We are right on the verge of a significant breakdown, which if you look at the longer-term multi-year charts, the area between 20 MXN and 21 MXN typically ends up being a massive resistance zone. The shape of the candlestick for the week does suggest that traders are starting to take notice how tensions between the United States and Mexico have cooled quite significantly. If we break down from here, we could very well see the dollar drop down to the 19 MXN level.
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