The WTI crude oil price remains under intense pressure as investors react to potential Russian supply increase news. It dropped to a low of $58.47, down by nearly 30% from its highest point this year.
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OPEC Meeting and Russia-Ukraine Deal
West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, has dropped in the past few weeks as Donald Trump has pushed Russia and Ukraine to strike a peace deal. He recently unveiled a 28-point plan that largely gives Russia everything it has asked for.
The talks are ongoing, and there is a likelihood that a deal will be reached soon. One part of the deal is that the US will end sanctions against Russia, allowing the country to export oil freely. Such a move will likely lead to more oil supply.
This supply will come at a time when OPEC+ has continued to boost production. This supply increase will likely end in a meeting to be held today, Nov. 30. A pause will likely help to curb the ongoing crude oil price retreat. Most importantly, the cartel is expected to leave its production targets for 2026 unchanged.
A major source of concern among the cartel is that there is an oversupply going on. Data shows that oil supply is outpacing demand by about 1.5 million barrels. In a recent note, a JPMorgan analyst warned that oil could drop to $30 unless the supply growth eases.
The main oil-related news that will impact its price is the upcoming US oil inventory report on Wednesday. Last week’s report showed that oil stocks rose by over 2.7 million barrels, continuing a trend that has been going on for months.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the WTI crude oil price has been in a downtrend this year. It has formed a descending channel pattern and moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). it has also moved below the strong pivot and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
The MACD and Relative Strength Indicators (RSI) have moved sideways in the past few weeks. It also remains below the Supertrend indicator.
Therefore, the most likely WTI crude oil price forecast is bearish, with the initial target being at $55.9, its lowest level this year. A move below this level will point to more downside to $50.
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