Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

Between the Macro events occurring, and the Technicals, the pain trade seems to be lower for the US Dollar. The only bull case I could think of at the moment is that it seems that the sell the dollar trade is starting to get extremely heavy, triggering a short-term reversal.

The action has been very quiet over the previous two weeks. Since the pin bar off the bullish trend lines, we had a very tiny bullish reversal candle (marked at 1), then a near doji candle last week.

Last week was bearish, closing hard on its low, with a fairly large upper wick. It is interesting to note that the week before that was unable to close above the resistance level of 1.6177.

Gold prices fell 2.4% for the week but managed to close just above the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily time frame. While the focus of the market remained on the partial government shutdown, political wrangling in the U.S. Congress increased gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.

The WTI Crude Oil markets rose slightly during the session on Friday after gapping just a touch lower. That being the case, we still see plenty of resistance at the $104 level, so I do not necessarily think that buying at this point in time is possible.

The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Friday, as the nonfarm payroll numbers did not come out due to the US government shutdown. That being the case, the US dollar got a little bit of a reprieve as there was no bad news.

The AUD/CAD pair tried to rally during the session on Friday, but as you can see got turned around and formed a massive shooting star. This shooting star is based around the 0.97 handle, so of course it looks as if we may get a little bit of a pullback in this general vicinity.

The GBP/CHF pair went back and forth during the session on Friday, the markets testing the 1.45 level. The market certainly sees a lot of support in this general vicinity, and the fact that we formed a bit of a hammer certainly shows just how supportive this area could be.

The GBP/USD pair fell hard during the Friday session as there was no nonfarm payroll number announcement to get in the way of the US dollar.

Begin the month of October with the weekly forecast for some of the major Forex pairs here.

Although the XAU/USD pair traded as low as 1302.04 during yesterday's session, dull economic numbers out of the United States and lack of progress on the U.S. budget and debt ceiling discussions helped gold bulls to defend this critical support level.

The WTI Crude Oil markets fell during the session on Thursday, finding the $104 level to be a bit too resistive. It's not a cute surprise, I did suspect that would be the first barrier to overcome, and the fact that today is nonfarm payroll Friday doesn't exactly help the case for a longer-term move anyway.

The EUR/USD pair rose during the session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.36 handle finally. Now that we are above there, looks like this market certainly is biased to the upside, and with the nonfarm payroll numbers coming out later today it's very likely we could get a large move.

The EUR/JPY pair had a positive session on Thursday, but as you can see gave back almost all of the gains in order to form a nice looking shooting star.

The GBP/USD pair fell during the session on Thursday, showing signs of a possible reversal. However, I do not think that this selloff had anything more to do with a reversal than the simple fact that the nonfarm payroll is today, and traders may be taking risk off of the table as they get concerned about the possibility of the numbers being a bit of a surprise.