Yesterday the British legal system gave its final verdict on the issue of how Brexit may be implemented:
- The process cannot begin (i.e. Article 50 cannot be triggered) without a vote to do so by the British Parliament. In practice, this will mean a vote must be won in the democratically elected House of Commons.
- The devolved British Parliaments/Assemblies of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have no right to a vote.
The pro-Brexit forces including the British government will have breathed a sigh of relief at this result, as there would have been great difficulty in getting the Scottish Parliament for example to approve leaving the European Union. All that is required now for the Government’s Brexit timeline to proceed smoothly is a vote by the national parliament by the end of March this year.
I had thought some weeks ago, that there would be a question as to whether such a vote could successfully pass through the House of Commons. I have changed my mind, largely because the Conservative government has completely adopted a “hard Brexit” policy. I had thought they would try to fudge Brexit. Now it seems that almost every Conservative member of Parliament can be counted upon to vote to approve triggering Brexit negotiations, although with a working majority of only 16 a vote could be close in theory. The second largest party, Labour, has promised to vote in favor of Brexit, but will attempt to introduce amendments “to make demands on rights, protections and market access”. The negotiation process will last two years from the triggering of Article 50, and Labour’s amendments would seek to give Parliament influence during the talks with the European Union during this period.
The major question then is whether Labour’s amendments will be clever and reasonable enough to win, or whether they are truly intended as political advertising to the electorate in the run-up to the next General Election.
